PRM LabPRMRugby sabermetrics

Transparency

Data, estimates & confidence

Where the numbers come from, what is measured versus estimated, and how complete the selected season is — for every source the rest of the site uses.

Applicable fields 99.8%
Nationality known99.3%
Minutes recorded100.0%
Validation outliers0
Salary evidence42 / 416reported · modelled
Match fixtures90

Sources

Datasets in use

These are the sources behind every page. Counts are for the selected season.

On a phone, each dataset is listed as a card. Rotate for the table view.

DatasetSourceUsed forCoverage
Club squadsOfficial competition feed (RugbyViz / InCrowd)Home insights, club pages, player arena, WARRP and IPV458 players · 10 clubsOne row per player. Salaries and identity are added after the official stats are collected.
Match resultsOfficial competition feed (RugbyViz / InCrowd)League table, actual points, regular-season fixture list90 regular-season fixturesRegular-season rounds only; knockouts are excluded from projections.
Official standingsVerified final regular-season tableLeague & Compare actual points and table positionLoadedPreferred over adding up match results when the official table is available.
Team match statisticsOfficial competition feed (RugbyViz / InCrowd)Win probability and projected league points93 matchesTeam-level kicks, scrum and try-assists. Player kicking is stored on club squad records.
Championship benchmarksSite reference tableSalary-cap base; club radar (metres, clean breaks, tackle completion)LoadedThe radar chart uses 3 of the ~20 benchmark rows. Cap math uses the season base (£5.0m in 2023-24, £6.4m from 2024-25).
KPI correlation weightsSite reference tableWARRP offensive, defensive, set-piece and discipline weightsLoadedKicks from hand are applied on player records and at match level.
Position multipliersSite reference tableWARRP position adjustmentLoaded
Player nationalityAll.Rugby JSON-LD and Wikipedia rugby infoboxesNationality on club pages, player arena, and Data tab completenessLoadedLoad-time overlay for URC and Top 14. Premiership identity is already on the club extracts. Wikipedia rugby infoboxes supply senior Test caps. Zero caps stay valid once nationality is known.

Observed vs estimated

What is measured, what is modelled

  • Player and match performance comes from the official Gallagher Premiership feed.
  • Salaries are modelled from positional medians, caps and club spend bands unless marked reported.
  • Squad cost, cap headroom and marquee allowance are therefore estimates.
  • Win probability and projected points are model outputs from team match stats, including kicks from hand.
  • Player kicking (from hand, metres, conversions, penalties) comes from the official player stats.
  • Zero international caps are expected for most squad players; unknown nationality is the identity gap.
  • Assists, player scrum rates and hooker throws are not in the official player stats. WARRP still includes those weights, treating missing values as 0 versus replacement.

The full research paper is on the Methodology tab.

Research paper →

Salary sources

Evidence behind the estimates

IPV, squad cost and cap headroom use the club squad figures. Direct reports keep their citation; everyone else starts from the official 2024-25 positional median.

Validation

Club data quality

Unknown nationality is a gap. Zero caps are expected for most players when nationality is known. Lineout steals are scored; scrum, throwing accuracy and jumper success stay out of the overall score.

Saracens crest
Saracens3 flagged rows · 0 outliers
99.8%

Coverage gaps

Where the tables are thin

WARRP still counts assists and set-piece stats. If a value is missing, it is treated as zero against a typical replacement player.

Least complete player stats

Gainline success97.4%
Tackle completion98.7%
International Caps99.1%
Nation99.1%
Player Name100.0%
Position100.0%
Position Group100.0%
Club100.0%

Set-piece coverage

Lineout steals100.0%
Lineout success (jumper)0.0%
Lineout throwing0.0%
Scrum penalties won0.0%
Scrum success0.0%

Not published for players

Assists0.0%
Lineout success (jumper)0.0%
Lineout throwing0.0%
Scrum penalties won0.0%
Scrum success0.0%

Imagery

Crests and editorial photos

Club crests come from official match assets and are served from Vercel Blob through the data API. Remote editorial images remain the property of their respective rights holders and can be swapped without changing the rest of the site.

Homepage image credits
  • 01 · Competitive context — PREM Rugby source
  • 02 · Team outcomes — PREM Rugby source
  • 03 · Replacement baseline — PREM Rugby source
  • 04 · Impact versus cost — PREM Rugby source
  • 05 · Market value — PREM Rugby source
Player image credits
  • Henry Pollock — Northampton Saints source
  • George Hendy — Northampton Saints source
  • Josh Hodge — PREM Rugby source
  • Ben Redshaw — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Kalaveti Ravouvou — Bristol Bears source
  • Gabriel Ibitoye — Bristol Bears source
  • Charlie Clare — Leicester Tigers source
  • Orlando Bailey — PREM Rugby / Bath Rugby source
  • Josh Bassett — Leicester Tigers source
  • Tommy Freeman — Northampton Saints source
  • Olly Woodburn — Exeter Chiefs source
  • Jack Walker — Harlequins source
  • Louie Hennessey — Bath Rugby source
  • Finn Russell — Bath Rugby source
  • Ellis Genge — Bristol Bears source
  • Scott Sio — Exeter Chiefs source
  • Henry Slade — Exeter Chiefs source
  • Matias Alemanno — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Marcus Smith — PREM Rugby source
  • Joe Marler — Harlequins source
  • Dan Cole — Leicester Tigers source
  • Ben Youngs — Leicester Tigers source
  • Julian Montoya — Leicester Tigers source
  • George Ford — Sale Sharks source
  • Tom Curry — PREM Rugby source
  • Jamie George — Saracens source
  • Elliot Daly — PREM Rugby source
  • Ben Earl — PREM Rugby source
  • Maro Itoje — PREM Rugby source
  • Liam Williams — Saracens source
  • Ollie Lawrence — PREM Rugby source
  • AJ MacGinty — Bristol Bears source
  • Dafydd Jenkins — PREM Rugby source
  • Chris Harris — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Santi Carreras — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Titi Lamositele — Harlequins source
  • Handre Pollard — Leicester Tigers source
  • Mike Brown — Leicester Tigers source
  • Nicky Smith — Leicester Tigers source
  • Anthony Watson — Leicester Tigers source
  • Jasper Wiese — Leicester Tigers source
  • Waisea Nayacalevu — Sale Sharks source
  • Owen Farrell — PREM Rugby source
  • Guy Pepper — Bath Rugby source
  • Alex Dombrandt — Harlequins source
  • Cadan Murley — Harlequins source
  • Solomone Kata — Leicester Tigers source
  • Fin Smith — PREM Rugby source
  • Tom Roebuck — Sale Sharks source
  • Henry Arundell — Bath Rugby source
  • Joe Cokanasiga — PREM Rugby source
  • Sam Underhill — PREM Rugby source
  • Louis Rees-Zammit — Bristol Bears source
  • Matias Moroni — Bristol Bears source
  • Viliame Mata — Bristol Bears source
  • Pedro Rubiolo — Bristol Bears source
  • Tom Jordan — Bristol Bears source
  • Immanuel Feyi-Waboso — Exeter Chiefs source
  • Tom Hooper — Exeter Chiefs source
  • Stephen Varney — Exeter Chiefs source
  • Jonny May — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Fin Baxter — Harlequins source
  • Chandler Cunningham-South — Harlequins source
  • Andre Esterhuizen — Harlequins source
  • Nick Tompkins — Saracens source
  • Theo Dan — Saracens source
  • Juan Martin Gonzalez — Saracens source
  • Lucio Cinti — Saracens source
  • Ben Spencer — Bath Rugby source
  • Kieran Marmion — Bristol Bears source
  • Len Ikitau — Exeter Chiefs source
  • Tomos Williams — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Mayco Vivas — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Gareth Anscombe — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Danny Care — Harlequins source
  • Alex Coles — Northampton Saints source
  • Asher Opoku-Fordjour — Sale Sharks source
  • Luke Cowan-Dickie — Sale Sharks source
  • Albert Tuisue — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Tom Willis — Saracens source
  • Theo McFarland — Saracens source
  • Thomas du Toit — Bath Rugby source
  • Steven Luatua — Bristol Bears source
  • Max Malins — Bristol Bears source
  • Santiago Grondona — Bristol Bears source
  • Freddie Steward — Leicester Tigers source
  • Jack van Poortvliet — Leicester Tigers source
  • Ollie Chessum — Leicester Tigers source
  • Tommy Reffell — Leicester Tigers source
  • George Martin — Leicester Tigers source
  • Joe Heyes — Leicester Tigers source
  • Ollie Sleightholme — Northampton Saints source
  • Rodrigo Isgro — Harlequins source
  • George Furbank — Northampton Saints source
  • Joe Launchbury — Harlequins source
  • George Turner — Harlequins source
  • Marco Riccioni — Saracens source
  • Manu Tuilagi — Sale Sharks source
  • Jonny Hill — Sale Sharks source
  • Ben Volavola — Leicester Tigers source
  • Will Stuart — Bath Rugby source
  • Charlie Ewels — Bath Rugby source
  • Josh Bayliss — Bath Rugby source
  • Cameron Redpath — Bath Rugby source
  • Quinn Roux — Bath Rugby source
  • Ross Byrne — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Nepo Laulala — Gloucester Rugby source
  • Leigh Halfpenny — Harlequins source
  • Jarrod Evans — Harlequins source
  • Wyn Jones — Harlequins source
  • Dillon Lewis — Harlequins source
  • Guido Petti — Harlequins source
  • Franco Molina — Exeter Chiefs source
  • Christ Tshiunza — Exeter Chiefs source
  • Luka Ivanishvili — Bristol Bears source
  • Alex Mitchell — Northampton Saints source
  • Temo Mayanavanua — Northampton Saints source
  • Danilo Fischetti — Northampton Saints source
  • Elliot Millar-Mills — Northampton Saints source
  • Hamish Watson — Leicester Tigers source
  • James O'Connor — Leicester Tigers source
  • Rhys Carre — Saracens source
  • Antoine Dupont — EPCR source
  • Damian Penaud — EPCR source
  • Siya Kolisi — United Rugby Championship source
  • Andrew Porter — Leinster Rugby source
  • Tadhg Furlong — Leinster Rugby source
  • Garry Ringrose — Leinster Rugby source
  • Tadhg Beirne — Munster Rugby source
  • Hugo Keenan — Leinster Rugby source
  • Matthieu Jalibert — Union Bordeaux Bègles source
  • Thomas Ramos — Stade Toulousain source
  • George Horne — Glasgow Warriors source
  • Robbie Henshaw — Leinster Rugby source
  • James Ryan — Leinster Rugby source
  • Caelan Doris — Leinster Rugby source
  • Dan Sheehan — Irish Rugby source
  • Josh van der Flier — Leinster Rugby source
  • James Lowe — Leinster Rugby source
  • Ronan Kelleher — Leinster Rugby source
  • RG Snyman — Leinster Rugby source
  • Rieko Ioane — Leinster Rugby source
  • Rabah Slimani — Leinster Rugby source
  • Jack Crowley — Munster Rugby source
  • Calvin Nash — Munster Rugby source
  • Jean Kleyn — Munster Rugby source
  • Zander Fagerson — Glasgow Warriors source
  • Huw Jones — Glasgow Warriors source
  • Darcy Graham — Glasgow Warriors source
  • Joe McCarthy — Leinster Rugby source
  • Sam Prendergast — Leinster Rugby source
  • Niall Scannell — Munster Rugby source
  • Bundee Aki — Connacht Rugby source
  • Mack Hansen — Connacht Rugby source
  • Finlay Bealham — Connacht Rugby source
  • Jacob Stockdale — Ulster Rugby source
  • Iain Henderson — Ulster Rugby source
  • Angus Bell — Ulster Rugby source
  • Jamie Ritchie — Edinburgh Rugby source
  • Sam Costelow — Scarlets Rugby source
  • Gareth Davies — Scarlets Rugby source
  • Taine Plumtree — Scarlets Rugby source
  • Warrick Gelant — DHL Stormers source
  • Scott Cummings — Glasgow Warriors source
  • Will Connors — Leinster Rugby source
  • Jordan Larmour — Leinster Rugby source
  • Jack Conan — Leinster Rugby source
  • Jamison Gibson-Park — Leinster Rugby source
  • Jamie Osborne — Leinster Rugby source
  • Jimmy O'Brien — Leinster Rugby source
  • Ryan Baird — Leinster Rugby source
  • Taulupe Faletau — Cardiff Rugby source
  • Mason Grady — Cardiff Rugby source
  • James Botham — Cardiff Rugby source
  • Stuart McCloskey — Ulster Rugby source
  • James Hume — Ulster Rugby source
  • Ox Nche — Sharks Rugby source
  • Lukhanyo Am — Sharks Rugby source
  • Craig Casey — Munster Rugby source
  • Kyle Steyn — Glasgow Warriors source
  • Rory Darge — Glasgow Warriors source
  • Sione Tuipulotu — Glasgow Warriors source
  • Josh Adams — Cardiff Rugby source
  • Ben Thomas — Cardiff Rugby source
  • Grégory Alldritt — EPCR source
  • Romain Ntamack — EPCR source
  • Eben Etzebeth — Sharks Rugby source
  • Tom Stewart — Ulster Rugby source
  • Joey Carbery — Munster Rugby source
  • Blair Kinghorn — Glasgow Warriors source
  • Julien Marchand — EPCR source
  • Yoram Moefana — EPCR source
  • Grant Gilchrist — Edinburgh Rugby source
  • Jack Willis — EPCR source
  • Tommaso Menoncello — EPCR source
  • Nolann Le Garrec — EPCR source
  • Rob Herring — Ulster Rugby source
  • Mike Haley — Ulster Rugby source
  • Robert Baloucoune — Ulster Rugby source
  • Harry Byrne — United Rugby Championship source
  • Louis Bielle-Biarrey — EPCR source
  • Charles Ollivon — RC Toulon source
  • Gabin Villiere — RC Toulon source
  • Joe Roberts — Ulster Rugby source
  • Cyril Baille — EPCR source
  • Uini Atonio — EPCR source
  • Duhan van der Merwe — EPCR source
  • Stuart Hogg — EPCR source
  • Matt Fagerson — Glasgow Warriors source
  • Nacho Brex — Benetton Rugby source
  • Gaël Fickou — EPCR source
  • Romain Taofifenua — Racing 92 source
  • Kyle Sinckler — EPCR source
  • Michele Lamaro — Benetton Rugby source
  • Sebastian Negri — Benetton Rugby source
  • Federico Ruzza — Benetton Rugby source
  • Billy Vunipola — EPCR source
  • Pierre Schoeman — EPCR source
  • Tom Wood — EPCR source
PRM / LAB

PRM Lab

Moneyball methods, rebuilt for the realities of rugby.

© 2026 Nathan Berrecloth · Independent research platform

Prem Rugby Moneyball is an independent research project and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to PREM Rugby, Premiership Rugby, or any participating club.