Moneyball club study
Squad cost, positional investment and replacement-adjusted player value — under one lens.
Newcastle FalconsEffective cap includes Brett Connon (£135,000)
£6,535,000 effective cap (base cap + marquee)
Squad analysis
Player detail
| Player | Position | WARRP | IPV | Est. salary | Value tier | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Hearle | Centre | 9.77 | 8.14 | £120,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Simon Benitez Cruz | Scrum-half | 8.41 | 8.08 | £104,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Tom Christie | Flanker | 6.26 | 4.97 | £126,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Reuben Parsons | Flanker | 4.31 | 5.26 | £82,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Tom Gordon | Flanker | 4.27 | 3.65 | £117,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Amanaki Mafi | Number 8 | 3.02 | 2.85 | £106,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| George McGuigan | Hooker | 2.99 | 3.18 | £94,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Fergus Lee-Warner | Flanker | 2.25 | 2.74 | £82,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Ollie Fletcher | Hooker | 1.48 | 2.22 | £67,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Oscar Usher | Lock | 1.01 | 1.55 | £65,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Jamie Hodgson | Lock | 0.25 | 0.30 | £81,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Murray McCallum | Prop | 0.00 | 0.00 | £88,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Tim Cardall | Flanker | -0.23 | -0.41 | £56,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Freddie Clarke | Lock | -0.26 | -0.42 | £63,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Nicky Little | Flanker | -0.42 | -0.79 | £53,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Jack Dickens | Flanker | -0.45 | -0.86 | £53,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Adam Brocklebank | Prop | -0.55 | -0.64 | £86,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Samson Adejimi | Flanker | -0.55 | -1.01 | £55,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Cammy Hutchison | Flanker | -0.81 | -1.42 | £57,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Freddie Lockwood | Number 8 | -0.90 | -1.19 | £76,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Finn Baker | Lock | -0.91 | -2.08 | £44,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| George Bolam | Flanker | -0.94 | -1.78 | £53,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Ollie Leatherbarrow | Number 8 | -0.95 | -0.98 | £97,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Christian Wade | Wing | -1.24 | -1.65 | £75,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Sammy Arnold | Centre | -1.33 | -1.35 | £98,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Ethan Grayson | Fullback | -1.34 | -1.86 | £72,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Richard Palframan | Prop | -1.42 | -1.71 | £83,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Adam Scott | Lock | -1.48 | -2.68 | £55,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Sebastian de Chaves | Lock | -1.86 | -4.54 | £41,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| John Hawkins | Lock | -1.97 | -5.05 | £39,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Elliott Obatoyinbo | Wing | -2.02 | -2.25 | £90,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Nathan Greenwood | Flanker | -2.04 | -3.77 | £54,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Luan de Bruin | Prop | -2.27 | -4.63 | £49,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Jamie Clark | Flanker | -2.95 | -4.92 | £60,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Brett Connon | Fly-half | -4.08 | -3.03 | £135,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Cameron Neild | Flanker | -4.88 | -7.40 | £66,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Max Clark | Centre | -5.13 | -6.75 | £76,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Rhys Beeckmans | Centre | -5.35 | -6.86 | £78,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Connor Hancock | Prop | -5.61 | -10.03 | £56,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Micky Rewcastle | Prop | -6.01 | -12.80 | £47,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Oll Spencer | Wing | -7.03 | -8.47 | £83,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Harrison Obatoyinbo | Wing | -7.38 | -12.10 | £61,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Connor Doherty | Centre | -8.80 | -15.44 | £57,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Sam Stuart | Scrum-half | -8.83 | -18.79 | £47,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| James Elliott | Scrum-half | -8.96 | -11.06 | £81,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Josh Hodge | Fullback | -9.47 | -18.94 | £50,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Ben Healy | Fly-half | -9.48 | -12.82 | £74,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Stefan Coetzee | Fullback | -11.10 | -27.75 | £40,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Boeta Chamberlain | Fullback | -13.10 | -24.72 | £53,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Liam Williams | Wing | -13.69 | -26.32 | £52,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |