Moneyball club study
Squad spend, where minutes go, and which players look like value or a stretch.
Newcastle FalconsEffective cap includes Amanaki Mafi (£155,000)
£6,555,000 effective cap (base cap + marquee)
Squad analysis
Player detail
| Player | Position | WARRP | IPV | Est. salary | Value tier | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Hearle | Centre | 11.69 | 10.00 | £117,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Simon Benitez Cruz | Scrum-half | 7.44 | 7.29 | £102,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Amanaki Mafi | Number 8 | 6.01 | 3.88 | £155,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Tom Christie | Flanker | 5.40 | 4.39 | £123,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Reuben Parsons | Flanker | 3.63 | 4.54 | £80,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Tom Gordon | Flanker | 3.60 | 3.16 | £114,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| George McGuigan | Hooker | 2.70 | 2.97 | £91,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Christian Wade | Wing | 2.29 | 3.14 | £73,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Fergus Lee-Warner | Flanker | 1.80 | 2.25 | £80,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Brett Connon | Fly-half | 1.68 | 1.27 | £132,000 | Fair value | Modelled-Medium |
| Elliott Obatoyinbo | Wing | 1.67 | 1.90 | £88,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Ollie Fletcher | Hooker | 1.31 | 1.98 | £66,000 | Significantly undervalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Oscar Usher | Lock | 0.83 | 1.32 | £63,000 | Fair value | Modelled-Medium |
| Cammy Hutchison | Flanker | 0.63 | 1.14 | £55,000 | Fair value | Modelled-Medium |
| Samson Adejimi | Flanker | 0.36 | 0.67 | £53,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Jamie Hodgson | Lock | 0.20 | 0.26 | £79,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Jamie Clark | Flanker | 0.19 | 0.33 | £58,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Nicky Little | Flanker | 0.01 | 0.03 | £52,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Murray McCallum | Prop | -0.03 | -0.04 | £85,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Tim Cardall | Flanker | -0.15 | -0.26 | £55,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Jack Dickens | Flanker | -0.19 | -0.37 | £51,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| George Bolam | Flanker | -0.19 | -0.36 | £52,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Freddie Clarke | Lock | -0.26 | -0.42 | £61,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Cameron Neild | Flanker | -0.53 | -0.83 | £64,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Adam Brocklebank | Prop | -0.58 | -0.69 | £84,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Nathan Greenwood | Flanker | -0.71 | -1.36 | £52,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Freddie Lockwood | Number 8 | -0.78 | -1.05 | £74,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Finn Baker | Lock | -0.79 | -1.83 | £43,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Ethan Grayson | Fullback | -0.85 | -1.21 | £70,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Ollie Leatherbarrow | Number 8 | -0.85 | -0.89 | £95,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Sammy Arnold | Centre | -1.07 | -1.11 | £96,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Connor Hancock | Prop | -1.16 | -2.12 | £55,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Adam Scott | Lock | -1.25 | -2.31 | £54,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Richard Palframan | Prop | -1.25 | -1.56 | £80,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Rhys Beeckmans | Centre | -1.34 | -1.79 | £75,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Sebastian de Chaves | Lock | -1.55 | -3.89 | £40,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Micky Rewcastle | Prop | -1.58 | -3.44 | £46,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| John Hawkins | Lock | -1.70 | -4.48 | £38,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Luan de Bruin | Prop | -1.97 | -4.10 | £48,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Oll Spencer | Wing | -2.66 | -3.29 | £81,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Harrison Obatoyinbo | Wing | -3.06 | -5.10 | £60,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Connor Doherty | Centre | -4.24 | -7.57 | £56,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Max Clark | Centre | -4.33 | -5.85 | £74,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| James Elliott | Scrum-half | -4.48 | -5.75 | £78,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Josh Hodge | Fullback | -4.98 | -10.38 | £48,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Stefan Coetzee | Fullback | -6.72 | -17.24 | £39,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Sam Stuart | Scrum-half | -6.76 | -14.69 | £46,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Boeta Chamberlain | Fullback | -7.69 | -14.79 | £52,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Liam Williams | Wing | -8.23 | -8.85 | £93,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |
| Ben Healy | Fly-half | -8.63 | -11.98 | £72,000 | Overvalued | Modelled-Medium |