Moneyball league lens / Live model
The league, decoded.
Official results meet modelled expectation. Use a rugby sabermetrics lens to track the gap, investigate every club and compare how efficiently squads turn resources into performance.
01
Actual performance vs model expectation
League standings vs model projection
Actual points from official match results. Projected points from the win-probability model (match stats vs league average). Delta = actual − projected. Negative delta means the model overestimated the team.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | PF | PA | Actual pts | Projected pts | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Northampton Saints View club → | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 693 | 536 | 74 | 49.9 | +24.1 |
| 2 |  Bath Rugby View club → | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 646 | 424 | 69 | 39.7 | +29.3 |
| 3 |  Exeter Chiefs View club → | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 521 | 367 | 65 | 41.6 | +23.4 |
| 4 |  Leicester Tigers View club → | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 583 | 405 | 63 | 40.6 | +22.4 |
| 5 |  Saracens View club → | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 628 | 449 | 57 | 39.5 | +17.5 |
| 6 |  Bristol Bears View club → | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 525 | 509 | 54 | 37.3 | +16.7 |
| 7 |  Sale Sharks View club → | 18 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 524 | 602 | 36 | 33.3 | +2.7 |
| 8 |  Gloucester Rugby View club → | 18 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 424 | 576 | 32 | 30.0 | +2.0 |
| 9 |  Harlequins View club → | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 448 | 589 | 31 | 40.2 | -9.2 |
| 10 |  Newcastle Falcons View club → | 18 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 325 | 860 | 12 | 26.0 | -14.0 |
02 / Comparison workspace
Build your study
Select the clubs to place under the same analytical lens.
Select clubs
Choose one or more clubs to compare for season 2025-26.
Selected clubs
Club comparison
Summary metrics only. Open a club for squad and player analysis.
| Club | Actual pts | Projected pts | Delta | Win probability | Est. squad cost | Est. headroom | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloucester Rugby | 32 | 30.0 | +2.0 | 39.1% | £6,498,000 | £222,000 | 4.61 |
| Bath Rugby | 69 | 39.7 | +29.3 | 52.7% | £8,497,000 | £0 | 4.68 |